Tinubu’s 2025 Budget of Restoration: A Grand Vision or Political Rhetoric?
In a speech laden with promises of peace, prosperity, and national rejuvenation, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on Wednesday presented the 2025 Budget of Restoration: Securing Peace, Rebuilding Prosperity to a joint session of the National Assembly. With an ambitious expenditure target of ₦47.90 trillion and revenue projections of ₦34.82 trillion, the proposed budget seeks to chart a path toward economic recovery and societal transformation. However, beyond the grandeur of its unveiling, critical questions remain about the feasibility of its projections and the administration’s capacity to deliver on its lofty promises.
Tinubu’s presentation underscored the urgency of addressing Nigeria’s multifaceted challenges, including economic instability, security deficits, and infrastructural decay. The president positioned the 2025 budget as a continuation of his administration’s Renewed Hope Agenda, which he described as a journey of “reforms and transformation” launched 18 months ago. Yet, for many Nigerians, the results of these reforms have been mixed at best, with soaring inflation, a plummeting naira, and widespread poverty eroding public confidence in the government’s ability to steer the country toward a prosperous future.
A Nation at a Crossroads
Delivering his speech to a packed chamber, Tinubu painted a picture of a nation at a critical juncture. “The road of reforms is now clearly upon us,” he declared, acknowledging the sacrifices made by ordinary Nigerians in the face of economic hardship. The president’s candour about the difficulties facing the nation was notable, but his assertion that these sacrifices “will not be in vain” may ring hollow for citizens grappling with daily struggles to survive.
Critics argue that Tinubu’s administration has failed to cushion the populace against the adverse effects of its policies. The removal of fuel subsidies in 2023, for instance, led to skyrocketing transportation and food costs, deepening poverty for millions. While the president insists that these reforms are necessary for long-term economic stability, the immediate impact has been devastating for vulnerable groups.
Economic Realities: Fact or Fiction?
Tinubu’s economic performance claims, particularly regarding GDP growth and foreign reserves, have sparked intense debate. According to the president, Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.46% in the third quarter of 2024, up from 2.54% in the corresponding period of the previous year. Additionally, foreign reserves reportedly stand at nearly $42 billion, while the country boasts a trade surplus of ₦5.8 trillion.
While these figures suggest a positive trajectory, skeptics question their alignment with the lived realities of Nigerians. Inflation remains at a staggering 34.6%, eroding purchasing power and plunging millions further into poverty. The naira, though projected to stabilise at ₦1,500 per US dollar in 2025, currently trades at approximately ₦1,700, reflecting a currency in crisis.
Tinubu’s assertion that the economy is “responding positively to stimulus” also raises eyebrows. The administration’s fiscal policies, including tax hikes and austerity measures, have been criticised for exacerbating economic inequality and stifling business growth. For many, the so-called “stimulus” appears to benefit only a select few, leaving the majority to bear the brunt of economic hardship.
The Budget Breakdown: Ambitious or Unrealistic?
The president’s budget proposal outlines substantial allocations to key sectors, with defence and security receiving ₦4.91 trillion, infrastructure ₦4.06 trillion, education ₦3.52 trillion, and health ₦2.48 trillion. These allocations reflect Tinubu’s stated priorities of national security, human capital development, and infrastructure renewal.
However, the budget’s ₦13.08 trillion deficit, equivalent to 3.89% of GDP, has raised alarms about its sustainability. With debt servicing costs projected at ₦15.81 trillion—more than double the allocation for education and health combined—the burden of Nigeria’s rising debt continues to loom large. Critics warn that the government’s reliance on borrowing to finance its ambitious spending plans could plunge the nation deeper into a debt crisis.
Moreover, Tinubu’s revenue projection of ₦34.82 trillion hinges on optimistic assumptions about increased oil production, reduced imports, and higher foreign exchange inflows. These assumptions, while aspirational, may prove difficult to achieve given the country’s persistent challenges, including oil theft, insecurity, and a volatile global economic environment.
Security and Infrastructure: A New Dawn or Old Promises?
In his address, Tinubu emphasised the importance of security as a foundation for progress. He announced increased funding for the military and police forces, pledging to provide them with modern tools and technology to combat insurgency, banditry, and other threats. The president also highlighted ongoing infrastructure projects such as the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and the Sokoto-Badagry Highway, which he described as “legacy projects” poised to transform the nation’s economic landscape.
While these initiatives are commendable, they are not without precedent. Successive administrations have made similar promises, only to fall short of delivering tangible results. The Nigerian public, weary of unfulfilled pledges, will be watching closely to see whether Tinubu can break the cycle of rhetoric and inaction.
2025 Budget of Restoration: Hope or Hollow Words?
Tinubu’s 2025 Budget of Restoration is undoubtedly ambitious, promising a brighter future for Nigeria through targeted investments in critical sectors. However, the gap between promise and performance remains a significant obstacle. For a population battered by economic hardship, the president’s assurances of peace and prosperity will mean little without concrete, measurable progress.
As the National Assembly begins deliberations on the budget, lawmakers must critically examine its assumptions and priorities, ensuring that it aligns with the realities faced by ordinary Nigerians. The stakes could not be higher: at a time when public trust in government is at an all-time low, Tinubu’s ability to deliver on his promises may well determine the future of his presidency—and the fate of the nation.
A Critical Examination of President Tinubu’s 2025 Budget of Restoration
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s presentation of the 2025 Budget of Restoration to a joint session of the National Assembly has been described by his administration as a bold and ambitious step towards securing peace and rebuilding Nigeria’s prosperity. However, the specifics of this budget demand a critical lens to unravel its implications, challenges, and the feasibility of its promises.
Unveiling a ₦50 trillion budget for 2025, the President Tinubu-led Nigerian government sets its sights on economic recovery and infrastructure growth. But with inflation soaring and debt concerns mounting, analysts question the feasibility of these lofty targets. December 18, 2024.
A Dubious Economic Growth Narrative
President Tinubu’s optimistic portrayal of Nigeria’s economic performance in 2024 raises questions about the accuracy and sustainability of his administration’s claims. While the National Bureau of Statistics reports a GDP growth of 3.46% in Q3 2024, this figure must be contextualised against persistent inflationary pressures, a skyrocketing exchange rate, and widespread economic hardship. The president’s assertion that foreign reserves now stand at $42 billion is noteworthy but prompts skepticism, given Nigeria’s history of opaque financial management and the constant need for external borrowing.
Moreover, the trade surplus of ₦5.8 trillion, though impressive on paper, does not directly translate into improved living conditions for Nigerians. Critics argue that this surplus may merely reflect increased exports of crude oil and raw materials, while imports of essential goods remain exorbitantly high, exacerbating domestic inflation and reducing purchasing power.
The president’s projection that inflation will decline from 34.6% to 15% in 2025 appears overly optimistic, particularly given the persistent structural issues plaguing the Nigerian economy. Relying on bumper agricultural harvests and reduced petroleum imports as key drivers of this decline may be more aspirational than realistic, especially in light of ongoing security challenges and infrastructural deficits.
Revenue Targets: Ambitious or Unrealistic?
The 2025 Budget’s revenue target of ₦34.82 trillion is unprecedented in Nigeria’s fiscal history. While it signals an administration eager to reverse the tide of fiscal deficits, it also raises critical questions about the sources and sustainability of such revenue. The president’s emphasis on foreign portfolio investments (FPIs) as a significant contributor to foreign exchange inflows is particularly contentious. FPIs are notoriously volatile, and Nigeria’s unstable business environment, characterised by corruption, insecurity, and policy inconsistency, could deter investors.
Additionally, the administration’s confidence in boosting crude oil production to 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd) clashes with Nigeria’s historical inability to meet OPEC quotas due to oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and declining investment in the sector. Although the president promises a reduction in upstream production costs, this pledge lacks concrete strategies to address the systemic corruption and inefficiencies that have plagued Nigeria’s oil and gas industry for decades.
Debt Servicing: A Looming Fiscal Crisis
One of the most contentious aspects of the 2025 Budget is its staggering allocation of ₦15.81 trillion for debt servicing, amounting to approximately one-third of the total projected expenditure. This figure underscores Nigeria’s deepening fiscal crisis, with public debt reaching alarming levels under the Tinubu administration. Critics argue that such a heavy debt servicing burden leaves little room for critical investments in education, healthcare, and infrastructure, thereby stalling long-term development.
The budget deficit of ₦13.08 trillion, or 3.89% of GDP, further complicates Nigeria’s fiscal outlook. While the president describes this deficit as “ambitious but necessary,” it highlights the unsustainable nature of Nigeria’s reliance on borrowing to finance government expenditures. With domestic and foreign creditors tightening lending conditions, the administration faces a daunting task in managing its debt obligations without triggering a full-blown economic crisis.
Sectoral Allocations: Priorities or Politics?
President Tinubu’s budgetary allocations for critical sectors such as defense, infrastructure, health, and education have been heralded as indicative of his administration’s commitment to national development. However, the figures warrant closer scrutiny to determine whether they align with the pressing needs of the Nigerian populace.
Defence and Security: The allocation of ₦4.91 trillion to defense and security is the highest among all sectors, reflecting the administration’s recognition of the centrality of security to national progress. However, critics argue that without addressing corruption within the security apparatus and ensuring transparency in defense spending, this allocation may fail to deliver tangible results. Nigerians continue to endure kidnappings, banditry, and insurgency, raising doubts about the effectiveness of previous security expenditures.
Education: The provision of ₦826.90 billion for educational infrastructure and ₦34 billion disbursed through the Nigeria Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) are commendable steps towards addressing the sector’s chronic underfunding. However, these figures pale in comparison to the UNESCO-recommended benchmark of 15-20% of national budgets for education. With teacher shortages, dilapidated schools, and poor learning outcomes still prevalent, critics question whether this allocation is sufficient to effect meaningful change.
Healthcare: The ₦402 billion earmarked for health infrastructure and the ₦282.65 billion for the Basic Health Care Fund signal an acknowledgment of the sector’s importance. Yet, the reality on the ground tells a different story. Many Nigerians lack access to quality healthcare services, and the country remains overly dependent on medical tourism. Without addressing systemic inefficiencies and ensuring accountability in healthcare spending, these funds may fail to achieve the desired impact.
Infrastructure: The ₦4.06 trillion allocated to infrastructure development represents a significant investment in Nigeria’s growth trajectory. The administration’s focus on projects such as the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and Sokoto-Badagry Highway is laudable, but these initiatives have historically been marred by delays, cost overruns, and corruption. Ensuring timely completion and value for money will be critical to realising the full potential of these investments.
The Renewed Hope Agenda: Rhetoric vs. Reality
President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda underpins the 2025 Budget, emphasising economic revitalisation, human capital development, and national reorientation. However, the administration’s track record over the past 18 months raises doubts about its ability to deliver on these promises.
The president’s call for a collective effort to “rewrite the narrative of this nation” resonates with patriotic fervour but risks being dismissed as hollow rhetoric without corresponding policy actions. Nigerians have grown weary of grandiose speeches that fail to translate into improved living conditions, and the 2025 Budget represents a litmus test for the administration’s credibility.
Corruption and Accountability: The Elephant in the Room
Perhaps the most glaring omission in President Tinubu’s budget presentation is a comprehensive strategy to tackle corruption, which remains a significant impediment to Nigeria’s development. While the president acknowledges corruption as an “existential threat,” his administration has yet to demonstrate the political will to confront this menace head-on.
From the mismanagement of public funds to the lack of transparency in government contracts, corruption continues to erode public trust and undermine Nigeria’s economic potential. Without robust anti-corruption measures, the lofty goals of the 2025 Budget risk being derailed by the very forces it seeks to overcome.
Public Reactions, Expert Opinions, and the Broader Implications of the 2025 Budget of Restoration
Public Reactions: A Nation Divided
The unveiling of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 2025 Budget of Restoration has sparked a wave of mixed reactions across Nigeria, reflecting the deep divisions within the polity. While supporters of the president have lauded the budget as a bold step toward national recovery, critics have dismissed it as another exercise in political grandstanding.
Supporters’ Optimism
Proponents of the budget, particularly members of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), have hailed the administration’s emphasis on infrastructure, security, and human capital development. They argue that the president’s ambitious revenue targets and sectoral allocations reflect a genuine commitment to reversing years of economic stagnation.
The National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS), for example, welcomed the establishment of the Nigeria Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) as a potential game-changer for underprivileged students. Similarly, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) expressed optimism over the administration’s plans to reduce the cost of doing business, particularly through improved infrastructure and energy supply.
Critics’ Skepticism
Conversely, critics of the Tinubu administration have questioned the feasibility of its targets and the sincerity of its promises. Civil society organisations similar to the Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP),have expressed concerns about the absence of concrete anti-corruption measures in the budget.
The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC) activists have also condemned the budget as anti-worker, citing its failure to address the minimum wage increase and rising unemployment. They argue that the administration’s reliance on foreign investments and oil production targets is a gamble that could exacerbate existing economic inequalities.
Grassroots Perspective
At the grassroots level, many Nigerians remain deeply skeptical of the budget’s promises. For millions of citizens struggling with the high cost of living, the president’s assurances of economic recovery ring hollow. In urban centres like Lagos and Kano, traders and artisans lament the rising prices of goods and services, attributing their woes to the administration’s removal of fuel subsidies and the devaluation of the naira.
Rural communities, particularly in the Niger Delta, have expressed frustration over the lack of tangible benefits from the country’s oil wealth. Activists in the region argue that the administration’s promises of pipeline security and increased oil production will only enrich political elites while leaving host communities impoverished.
Expert Opinions: Navigating Uncharted Waters
Economic and political analysts have offered nuanced perspectives on the 2025 Budget, highlighting both its potential and its pitfalls.
Economic Analysts: Balancing Ambition with Reality
Bismarck Rewane, CEO of Financial Derivatives Company, has provided several insights into Nigeria’s economic performance and projections:
Economic Growth Projections: Rewane forecasts that Nigeria’s GDP will reach approximately $400 billion by 2026, with an expected growth rate of 3.5% over the next two years.
First Half 2024 Performance: He noted that the Nigerian economy underperformed in the first half of 2024, emphasising the need for a minimum growth rate of 4% in the subsequent quarters to meet annual targets.
Monetary Policy Concerns: Rewane expressed concerns that sustained monetary tightening could impede Nigeria’s economic growth, highlighting the potential negative impact of high-interest rates and rising inflation on economic activities.
Political Analysts: The Leadership Question
Professor Jibril Ibrahim, a senior fellow at the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), has shared his perspectives on Nigeria’s political environment:
Democratic Expectations: Ibrahim has critiqued Nigeria’s Fourth Republic for its inability to produce leaders committed to democratic ideals, suggesting that the expectations of democracy in Nigeria are not being met.
Governance and Regime Change: In his writings, Ibrahim has discussed issues of bad governance and the fear of regime change, emphasising the need for improved governance structures to address systemic challenges
International Observers: A Cautious Optimism
International financial institutions, including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), had offered cautious support for the 2024 Budget and is expected to do the same for the 2025 Budget. While acknowledging the administration’s efforts to stabilise the economy, they have called for greater fiscal prudence and transparency in public spending.
The IMF, in particular, has recently urged the government to prioritise debt sustainability, warning that Nigeria’s rising debt-to-GDP ratio could undermine investor confidence.
Broader Implications: What Lies Ahead
Economic Resilience or Decline?
The 2025 Budget of Restoration presents a pivotal moment for Nigeria’s economy. If implemented effectively, the budget could lay the groundwork for sustained growth and development, particularly through investments in infrastructure and human capital. However, the risks of policy failure, corruption, and global economic volatility remain significant.
The administration’s ability to achieve its revenue and expenditure targets will be a litmus test for its economic management skills. Failure to meet these targets could plunge the nation into a deeper fiscal crisis, further eroding public trust and exacerbating socio-economic inequalities.
Political Stability and Public Trust
The budget also has profound implications for Nigeria’s political stability. President Tinubu’s ability to deliver on his promises will shape public perceptions of his administration and, by extension, the APC’s prospects in the 2027 general elections.
A failure to address the pressing needs of ordinary Nigerians, particularly in areas such as job creation, security, and social welfare, could fuel public discontent and heighten political tensions. Conversely, tangible progress on key policy goals could bolster the president’s legitimacy and enhance his political capital.
The Role of Civil Society and Media
Civil society organisations and the media will play a critical role in holding the government accountable for its budgetary promises. Increased scrutiny of public spending, coupled with advocacy for greater transparency and anti-corruption measures, will be essential to ensuring the budget’s success.
The Road Ahead
The 2025 Budget of Restoration represents both an opportunity and a challenge for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration. While the budget’s ambitious targets and sectoral allocations signal a desire to transform Nigeria’s socio-economic landscape, its success will depend on the government’s ability to overcome entrenched challenges, including corruption, inefficiency, and policy inconsistency.
As Nigerians navigate the uncertain path ahead, the administration must prioritise not just economic growth but also social equity, public trust, and national unity. The stakes are high, and the consequences of failure could reverberate for years to come.