Israel-Gaza war widens rifts in Africa’s Maghreb

WORLD WATCHIsrael-Gaza war widens rifts in Africa’s Maghreb

The Hamas-Israel war is exacerbating divisions, weakening Arab unity
Morocco maintains ties with Israel despite backlash from Algeria and Tunisia

A new alliance has formed amid rivalry, underscoring regional tensions

The Israel-Gaza war has widened existing rifts within the Maghreb states in North and West Africa. While the past year has seen a degree of Arab unity in support of the Palestinian cause, longstanding rivalries have thwarted any semblance of solidarity, despite the Palestinian issue having long mobilized public opinion throughout the region.

Across the Maghreb, the creation of Israel continues to be viewed as a post-World War II imposition – an injustice that is fundamentally extrinsic to the Middle East. In this context, Maghrebi diplomats have played diverse roles: Tunis served as the headquarters of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) for over a decade, and it was in Algiers that the late PLO leader Yasser Arafat proclaimed the independence of the State of Palestine in 1988. Morocco, in turn, has carved itself a unique niche, by fostering and maintaining dialogue between the Jewish and Palestinian communities.

The shocking brutality of Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, stunned the Arab world, yet few anticipated Israel’s protracted and devastating military response, or that it would be so damaging to civilians: The death toll is in the tens of thousands. More than half of the Gaza Strip has been destroyed, and all attempts to broker even a ceasefire have failed.

Despite the scale of human suffering in Gaza, Morocco has opted to maintain its diplomatic relations with Israel. Its rationale for this is that the humanitarian situation in Gaza is so dire that it is necessary to engage the Israeli authorities in dialogue to spur a change in their conduct. This stance echoes that of the other countries that have signed the Abraham Accords with Israel, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan, which believe that normalizing relations with Israel still allows for criticism of its military conduct, and that breaking off relations would be counterproductive if a peace agreement is to be reached sooner than later.

Facts & figures

The Maghreb region, located in the north and west of the African continent, includes Mauritania, Western Sahara, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and Libya. The region has significant political, social and economic connections, as well as shared challenges and historical ties – particularly concerning colonialism and contemporary geopolitical dynamics.

Rabat’s decision has, however, elicited sharp rebukes from Algeria, Tunisia and Libya, which would prefer to see Israel isolated. They view Morocco’s approach as a ploy to curry favor with the international community, especially the United States, in exchange for backing in its protracted territorial dispute with the Polisario Front in the disputed territory of Western Sahara.

A matter of domestic policy
Rabat and Algiers both have to tread carefully. In Morocco, the authorities are primarily concerned with ensuring that the demonstrators protesting against Israeli military actions do not stray into questioning the pro-Israeli policies of the authorities. While some dissent is tolerated, freedom of expression in Morocco ends when it comes to challenging the monarchy.

Conversely, Algeria has adopted a confrontational stance toward the Gaza conflict. The Algerian government, which does not recognize the state of Israel, seeks to unite Palestinian factions, which have reconciled on paper under the 2022 Algiers Declaration, which calls for a common front in the face of the “Zionist occupation.”

Algiers also draws parallels between the Palestinians’ plight and the Western Sahara issue, which since 1957 has been the spearhead of its fight against colonialism. Yet while Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune cannot oppose demonstrations denouncing the Israeli operation, he is concerned about the resurgence of large popular movements such as Hirak (2019-2020), a pro-democracy and human rights movement. Similar to the Moroccan authorities, he fears a possible shift of protestors’ attention from Palestine to local political issues.

Algeria is a non-permanent member of the Security Council for 2024-2025, and observers have noted that its diplomatic engagement concerning the Palestinian issue is somewhat tepid, as if the Algerians were reluctant to work alongside the major powers as they try to achieve peace or at least a truce. It has pledged humanitarian aid and funds for Gaza’s reconstruction, but its commitments are not outstandingly significant, and match the promises of other Maghreb countries.

Within Algeria the war in Gaza has unleashed a wave of internal political tension. Even the most innocuous statement by the authorities is dissected in detail by the public. The uproar caused by President Tebboune’s comment that “we will not abandon Palestine. … The army is ready – to build three hospitals in 20 days,” is a case in point: The head of state’s pledge was roundly rejected by the press and in social networks, with the feasibility and therefore legitimacy of this initiative being questioned. The public appears more inclined to call for tangible commitments such as accepting Palestinian refugees from Gaza or elsewhere, or working toward an intra-Palestinian political solution for the period after the war.

Tunisia, much like Algeria, is ensnared in its own dogmatic posture, and is also marked by a lack of diplomatic initiative. The preamble to the Tunisian Constitution of 2022 enshrines “the right of the Palestinian people to their plundered land and the establishment of their state,” but this rhetoric has not been matched by Tunisian actions. While Tunis regularly threatens to “criminalize” relations with Israel – potentially undermining its diplomatic relations with Rabat – Tunisian President Kais SaIed’s diplomacy is treading water. Although Tunis is a signatory to the Rome Statute, which authorizes recourse to the International Criminal Court (ICC), it did not support South Africa’s charge against Israel for the “crime of genocide.” It did not vote in favor of the call for a humanitarian ceasefire in October 2023, arguing that the text lacked firmness. And its diplomats are virtually absent from all initiatives to resolve the conflict.

Deepening divisions in the Maghreb
These widening fissures within the Maghreb culminated in an official schism in May 2024 with the creation of a tripartite alliance between Algeria, Tunisia and Libya, dubbed the G3. This alliance, while principally an exercise in political posturing rather than a functional coalition, underscores the depth of the rift between the pro-Western bloc, represented by Morocco, and this grouping of three nations opposed to normalization with Israel, which enjoys the tacit support of Russia.

Libya’s involvement in this issue merits particular attention. Known for its persistent internal strife and characterized by political fragmentation and sporadic clashes between militias, Libya has experienced a resurgence of diplomatic activity amid the Israel-Gaza war. Its parliament demanded the “immediate” departure of the ambassadors of countries supporting Israel, mentioning the U.S., the United Kingdom, France and Italy. Meanwhile, Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh pledged $50 million in humanitarian aid for the people of Gaza.

The war in Gaza highlights the divisions in the Maghreb, which, like the crisis in the Middle East, are likely to worsen in the short and medium term. With no appetite for reconciliation or compromise following a period of discord, the regional powers are entering a phase defined by deep-seated animosity.

Scenarios
Most likely: Morocco maintains ties with Israel

Morocco is likely to maintain its relations with Israel despite various challenges. The Moroccan government may send signals of goodwill to the West by reiterating its support for a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem – referred to as East Al-Qods – as its capital, thereby implicitly acknowledging the division of the Holy City. The widening chasm between Rabat and the G3 entrenches Morocco’s isolation and simultaneously benefits Russia’s growing influence in the region, which in turn compels Western nations to align more closely with Morocco. This can already be seen in growing international support for Morocco’s position on Western Sahara.

In such a fractured climate, the dream of an Arab Maghreb Union, envisioned back in 1989, fades into an unattainable aspiration.

Less likely: Tensions escalate between Morocco and Algeria

A more precarious scenario involves the escalation of tensions into a series of skirmishes in southern Morocco between the Moroccan Royal Armed Forces and elements of the Polisario Front, which are supported by Algeria. Although both parties appear committed to exercising restraint, and neither side wants an open conflict that would accelerate an arms race in the region, the potential for inadvertent conflict remains. The pro-Western side, supported by the Americans and Israelis, may favor the purchase of advanced, expensive military technology. Conversely, the pro-Russian side would favor the acquisition of more rudimentary, less expensive weapons. In this scenario, the region might become increasingly susceptible to sudden outbursts of conflict – despite external powers’ attempts to prevent war.

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