Ghana is set to witness a fiercely contested race in the 2024 election, with the economy as the focal point. Since the introduction of multi-party democracy in 1992, no political party in Ghana has won more than two consecutive terms. The ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) is attempting to break this trend, often referred to as the “third-term curse,” while the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC), led by former President John Mahama, aims to reclaim power.
The NPP and NDC have historically dominated Ghana’s political landscape, each winning four presidential elections since 1992. Under Jerry Rawlings, the NDC claimed early victories in 1992 and 1996. The NPP, led by John Kufuor, broke through in 2000, retaining power in 2004. The NDC returned to power in 2008, and Mahama won in 2012, only to lose to Nana Akufo-Addo in 2016. That year marked the first time an incumbent president lost re-election, with Akufo-Addo securing 53.9% of the vote.
In 2024, Vice President Mahamadu Bawumia will lead the NPP, aiming to secure a third consecutive victory. After serving as Akufo-Addo’s running mate in three elections, this will be his first presidential bid. Meanwhile, Mahama hopes to become the first former president to reclaim the presidency after a defeat.
Although Ghana operates a multi-party system, smaller political parties have historically struggled to gain traction due to the dominance of the NPP and NDC. However, new candidates like Alan Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako are emerging as potential challengers. Kyerematen, formerly of the NPP, left after internal disputes and now leads the Alliance for Revolutionary Change (ARC). Bediako, inspired by Nigeria’s Peter Obi, heads the New Force Movement, targeting younger and disillusioned voters. While these third-party candidates may not secure major victories, analysts believe they could push the election to a runoff.
Regional dynamics also influence the election, particularly in Ghana’s northern areas, where the NDC has traditionally been strong. However, Bawumia’s candidacy has bolstered the NPP’s influence, especially in the NorthEast, where they secured 51.4% of the vote in 2020. The NPP aims to increase this share to 55.8%. The NDC is expected to retain strongholds in the Upper East, Upper West, and Savannah regions while both parties compete intensely for the Northern Region.
Additionally, swing regions like Central, Western, and Greater Accra are expected to play a crucial role. These regions have historically aligned with the winning presidential candidate, and shifting voter dynamics may shape the 2024 race again.